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Analysis of defects in traditional method of casing design by reliability theory
GAO Jin-wei1,YAN Xiang-zhen1,2,YANG Xiu-juan2,WANG Jian-jun3
(1. Graduate School in China University of Petroleum,Dongying 257061,Shandong Province,China ;2. College of Transport & Storage and Civil Engineering in China University of Petroleum,Dongying 257061, Shandong Province,China ;3. Tubular Goods Research Center, China National Petroleum Corporation,Xi'an 710065, China)
Abstract:
On account of the randomness of casing's geometric dimension and mechanical properties,the regularities of distribution of casing strength were obtained by Monte-Carlo method. The influence of the randomness of casing's geometric dimension and mechanical properties on the randomness of casing strength was achieved. Both the distribution parameters of casing strength and the reliability of API casing strength were worked out. The reliability model of casing was established by reliability theory. The influencing factors of casing reliability were analyzed. The influence of the randomness of loads on the reliability of casing,and the relationship between the reliability and safety coefficient of casing were obtained. The results indicate that the more random casing's geometric dimension and mechanical properties are,the more random the casing strength is. The randomness was not be considered in the traditionil formulas of casing strength rationally. The extraordinary randomness of casing strength and load can obviously reduce the reliability of casing. The influence of the randomness on the reliability of casing caiit be evaluated effectively,in the traditionil method of casing design.
Key words:  casing strength  randomness  load  Monte-Carlo method  safety coefficient  reliability