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| Strategic risk evaluation of overseas oil and gas investment based on scenario planning |
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WANG Dong-jin1,2,LI Xiu-sheng1
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(1. Collge of Petroleum Engineering in China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;2. China National Petroleum Corporation，Beijing 100007, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the characteristics of Chinese transnational investment on oil and gas, five key contributing factors of strategic risk including decision-making risk，geopolitical risk，competitive risk, operational risk and social responsibility risk were put forward. And a strategic risk evaluation model of transnational investment on oil and gas was developed through scenario planning theory. This model overcomes the shortcomings of random selection and evaluation of the traditional risk assessment method, which focuses on risk factors of important strategic risks based on simulated situations. So it makes investors prevent risks early. These have important strategic sense for better prevention and response to the risk of transactional investment on oil and gas. |
| Key words: overseas oil and gas investment strategic risk evaluation model scenario planning |
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