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Assessment method of borehole instability risk
WEI Kai, GUAN Zhi-chuan, LIAO Hua-lin, SHI Yu-cai, LIU Yong-wang
(School of Petroleum Engineering in China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China)
Abstract:
For the stochastic property of borehole geometric parameters, mechanical properties and formation pressures, the deficiency of the traditional method of borehole stability coefficient was analyzed. According to the broad structural reliability theory, the risk assessment method of borehole instability was established from the perspective of mechanics. The distribution regularities of the borehole instability risk probabilities were simulated by Monte-Carlo random sampling method, and the instability risk probabilities distribution and the traditional borehole stability coefficient were discussed. The borehole instability risk assessment method of full well section was established. The results show that this method and program could meet the requirements of wellbore stability evaluation. The probabilistic method of borehole instability risk based on the reliability could be used to quantitatively evaluate borehole stability. The borehole instability risk probability could provide foundations for selection of borehole stability coefficient as well as evaluation of borehole stability under uncertainty conditions.
Key words:  drilling  borehole stability  reliability theory  Monte-Carlo method  stability coefficient  borehole instability risk probability