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A quantitative evaluation method of drilling risks based on uncertainty analysis theory
SHENG Yanan1, GUAN Zhichuan1, LUO Ming2, LI Wentuo2, XU Yuqiang1
(1.School of Petroleum Engineering in China University of Petroleum(East China), Qingdao 266580, China;2.Zhanjiang Branch, CNOOC (China)Company Limited, Zhanjiang 524057, China)
Abstract:
In order to establish a quantitative evaluation method of drilling risks, firstly, the uncertainty of the formation pressure and the equivalent circulation density of drilling fluids were analyzed and the probability distributions of formation pressure and equivalent circulation density of drilling fluids were obtained. Then based on the theory of generalized stress and strength interference, a quantitative evaluation method of drilling risks was established. In this method, the generalized stress is defined as the risk factor, which is the equivalent circulation density of drilling fluid. The generalized intensity is defined as the safety factor, which is the formation pressure. A risk function is also defined. The results of case studies indicate that this method can be used to predict the probability of the drilling risks, which were in good agreement with the actual drilling scenarios.
Key words:  drilling risk evaluation  formation pressure with credibility  uncertainty  Monte Carlo simulation