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Medium and long term power load prediction of offshore oil field based on oil and gas exploitation
WANG Yansong1, ZHAO Xing1, LI Qiang2, LI Xue2, WEI Che2
(1.New Energy College in China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, China;2.CNOOC Research Institute,Beijing 100028, China)
Abstract:
Medium and long term power load prediction is the theoretical basis of power system planning and design. Accurate load prediction can reduce the installation space of offshore oil platform, and save investment and operation cost. Based on the analysis of the power load demand and future development trend of offshore oil and gas production scale, in the process of production technology, gathering and transportation technology and so on, the stepwise regression analysis method was proposed to select the strong correlation characteristic quantity of load forecasting. Based on the blind number theory, the strong characteristic quantity was blinded, and the blind number regression model of load forecasting was established. Finally, taking the historical data of an offshore oilfield block as an example, the forecasting results of the proposed method were compared with those of other forecasting methods. The result shows that, the load forecasting accuracy of the blind number regression model based on strong characteristic quantity is higher, and the medium and long-term load forecasting results in the next 10 years are given.
Key words:  offshore oil and gas fields  power load forecasting  strong characteristic quantity  blind number  stepwise regression