| 本文已被：浏览次 下载次 |
码上扫一扫！ |
|
|
|
| Oil reserves and production prediction based on multi-cyclic Gauss model |
|
ZHU Jie1,2,UU Guang-di1,UU Cheng-lin1,CHE Chang-bo2
|
|
(1. School of Resource and Information Technology in China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;2. Strategic Research Center for Oil & Gas Resources, Ministry of Land and Resources y Beijing 100034, China)
|
| Abstract: |
| By analyzing exploration and development history of Ordos Basin and its multi-cyclic characteristics of oil reserves and production growth，history curves of oil reserves and production for the basin were fit by multi-cyclic Gauss models. And the tendency of oil reserves and production growth from the year 2006 to the year 2030 were predicted. The results show that the annual average proven reserves of Ordos Basin will be 1.3 x 108 t from the year 2006 to the year 2030，and the accumulated proven reserves will be 33 X 108t by the end of the year 2030. The oil production will rise rapidly in the early stage and will rise steadily in the later stage, then will decrease slowly after the year 2025，and will be more than 0.3 x 108t at the end of the year 2030. The foreground of oil exploration and development of the basin will be vast for quite a long time. |
| Key words: multi-cyclic Gauss model Ordos Basin oil reserves production prediction |
|
|